Confidential Report From British Foreign Office

The situation in Italy is more threatening. Everyone expects a political crisis when the Chamber re-opens on October 15th. The Provinces of Genoa, Turin and Milan have been placed in the war zone which is a euphemism for martial law, and there are various other signs that the Government feels the need to use the strong hand, though whether it is strong enough to do so is doubtful.

But grave doubts are expressed as to whether Italy can fight through another winter campaign. A diplomat who has been 20 years in Rome, and is supposed to be the best-informed foreigner there says "Italy will fight through the winter if it can". By this he means to imply that she can only continue to fight if she is well supplied with coal and corn. Factories are already idle because of coal. There have been several food riots already; but it seems that these can be paid to the door of bad distribution rather than of actual shortage. Nevertheless, in estimating for next year, to quote the diplomat again: "For every ten Italians there is food for seven. Are the other three going to starve, or will someone outside of Italy feed them? The war has shown that the United Kingdom cannot starve the Central Empires, but that it can starve the Neutrals and Italy." My informant ends up his whole communication thus: "I hope that people in London realize the gravity of the situation. My personal view is that without extensive imports from the United Kingdom and America of food and fuel, there will be serious trouble in Italy in the winter and if serious troubles breaks out there is no organization civil or military, central or local, that can cope with it.

I had a short talk with Scott (Of the Manchester Guardian) yesterday. He is getting disgruntled with the Government, says that LG is letting things slip out of his control both as to administration and policy, that Milner and Curzon sit like two spiders weaving say he is to do, does without further thought. He complains that L.G. will not work, whereas Milner and Curzon do.

He talked to me about W. W'S decision that the members of Congress ought to take no part in the Allied Parliamentary Conference. He is very firm in his approval of America keeping out of formal alliances, and definitely asks me to tell you this. He thinks that apart from being much better for her to be able to play a lone hand when she wants to, that we may be very glad to be able to say, possibly to France, and probably to Italy: "Yes, we do agree, and as far as we are concerned, we should feel bound to stick to it, but America disagrees. We cannot coerce her, and we cannot neglect her advice either. Nor can you."