Memorandum

MEMORANDUM
SUGGESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM OF THE PRESENT
RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO,
GROWING OUT OF THE DISTURBED POLITICAL
CONDITIONS OF THE LATER COUNTRY.
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First.
Armed intervention of the United States in the affairs of Mexico should be regarded by the people of the United States as a national calamity, as it certainly would prove to be, and is, therefore, to be avoided with the greatest care and by all honorable means. I make this statement as the result of an intimate acquaintance and knowledge of the Mexican people for more than twenty years, supplemented also by a knowledge of the Latin American prejudices and points of view. Intervention would cost the United States untold millions, and its disastrous consequences could not be measured. I have fought the intervention sentiment vigorously whenever it was manifest.

Second.
The intimate commercial relations, however, between the two countries, the enormous investments of Americans in Mexico, the increasing commerce between the two countries, the jealousies of certain other foreign peoples interested in the country, and the responsibilities which the United States have assumed in Latin America growing out of the Monroe Doctrine, and which responsibilities are intensified in Mexico owing to its proximity to this country, as well as the world-old natural laws of national expansion, together make intervention in Mexico almost a certain destiny of this country which can be avoided only by a firm and clear policy on our part in carrying on political intercourse of the two governments.

The Mexican people give us no credit whatever for any philanthropic or disinterested motives in our attitude towards them. They believe us ready to avail ourselves of any excuse to deprive them of their independence and annex their territory; and so long as this belief continues on their part, the danger of intervention as well as the necessity will continue to be remote, since they will, to avoid this danger, discharge their responsibitities towards American citizens and American investments in that country and in protection of American commerce. Dispel that fear from their minds, and the natural antipathy between the Latin and the Anglo Saxon, increased by the feeling of jealousy which the inferior nation feels for the superior, and the lack of restraint among their people, due to the growing lawlessness, is likely to bring about some outrage against Americans domiciled in that country that will arouse the whole United States and force intervention and war, as did the incident of the blowing up of the “Maine”. I regard it, therefore, as of prime importance, and in order to avoid the danger of intervention, to at all times hold the Mexican Government up to the strictest responsibility for the protection of the lives, the liberty and the property of Americans residing in that country. This should be demanded and insisted upon by our Government at all times. Any relaxation on our part of this rule, or any evidence of abandoning or waiving our strict rights, is invariably accepted by the Mexican people and the Mexican Government as an evidence of fear, cowardice or weaknesss on our part, and tends to encourage wrongs.

Third.
The problem of the pacification of Mexico is not simply a political problem. That is a question not generally understood in this country; but it is a racial and a social problem which has been fostered by a caste system in force in that country since the Spanish Conquest. Ninety per cent of the population of the country are Indians who have been kept in a condition almost of peonage or species of slavery by a limited number of great land owners. They are unlettered, and have the natural hatred of the Indian for the white man, which has been increased by their treatment. The Madero revolution of 1910 was a revolution of the proletariat and in his interest. The present mental state of the common people of Mexico is one of confusion, false ideas and delusions. They have a wrong notion of the meaning of liberty, which they interpret rather as license. This is increased by their socialistic and communistic ideas. The Indian is originally, and by tradition, a communist, as is well known. He practiced it in its most perfect form in Mexico, and not until about the year 1900 was the communist system of land-holding among the Indians extinguished by the Government. Their attitude toward the Government is traditionally one of hatred, which, by force of circumstances, is extended to all foreign companies and enterprises because they were always protected and sustained by the Government, especially under General Diaz. Their notion, therefore, of democracy is a sort of socialism and communism, and the revolution has worked their complete insubordination to government and law. Add to this the fact that superior force is the only argument they have ever known or respected, and as they have, by the recent revolution, been taught that they could overthrow and dominate the Government, the cause of the continued revolutionary spirit and the difficulty of overcoming it and establishing order is are very obvious.

Fourth.
Their contact with the people of the United States has made the inhabitants of the border Mexican states more unruly and lawless.

THE PRESENT PERIL IN OUR RELATIONS.

Fifth. It is to be regretted, I think, that the question of the recognition of the Huerta Government was raised by us, for the reason that non-recognition of the de facto government in Mexico has had a powerful effect in encouraging revolt against that government; indeed it is understood, in the north of Mexico, as a form of expressing sympathy with, and encouragement for, revolution against the de facto government. The resolution of Huerta not to recognize our Ambassador is also most unfortunate, and is apt to be interpreted by the people as inviting hostility and reprisal against Americans, and if this unfortunate misunderstanding between the two governments is long continued there is great danger of some explosion that will bring about the very intervention that we desire to avoid. I regard it as an ever-present peril until the question of recognition is settled.
Moreover, the continuance of revolution and war in Mexico for another year will utterly ruin the country, and destroy a large part of the one thousand million dollars of American investments there. The resources of the Government, as well as of the revolutionists, are being exhausted and the finances of the country are falling into disorder and confusion which will destroy the credit of the nation so that it will require a quarter of a century for the country to recover.

Sixth.
Moreover, if the present de facto government of Mexico shall succeed in pacifying the country without the moral aid and sympathy of our Government, we shall lose the friendship and prestige which has required twenty years to build up, our commerce will be greatly injured and American influence undermined, a loss which I believe will extend to and be felt by us in all the Latin American States, for the Mexicans, as well as all Latin Americans, are highly emotional and sentimental and proud, and they will nurse a grievance and resent a real or fancied wrong for an indefinite period. It seems to me also that non-recognition would have the effect of barring the claims of American citizens for loss inflicted by both sides during the present revolution. It would seem that we could hardly hold the Mexican Nation responsible for the acts or omissions of a government that we ourselves repudiate as illegal, if that government, which the revolutionists denominate as illegal, falls.

Seventh.
The present political situation in Mexico is briefly defined as follows: The governors of the States of Coahuila and Sonora, dominating the political machinery of these two states, and aided by a large following in Chihuahua, are in control of almost the entire area of the northern boundary states of Mexico, and are in rebellion against the administration of President Huerta, calling themselves constitutionalists. They do not pretend, and have not pretended, to secede from Mexico, but they have denounced Huerta as a usurper and his administration as illegal, and are largely supported in that position by the attitude of the United States Government in refusing to recognize Huerta as the president de jure of Mexico. They pretend to exercise the federal authority and enforce the federal laws within the territory of the State of Coahuila and Sonora in trust for the nation until a constitutional president, as they call him, pledged to the support of the law, can be elected. The constitutionalists, however, are practically without resources –– that is, without funds –– and have exhausted, for the most part, their sources to obtain funds, and I feel quite sure are in a position where a friendly intervening powerful influence like the Government of the United States could bring about a suspension of hostilities and an agreement between the constitutionalists and the federalists represented by the Huerta administration. The constitutionalists steadfastly refuse to recognize Huerta or to treat with him.

Eighth.
I heartily approve of the resolution of the President to avoid the practice of so-called “Dollar diplomacy”, which practice I understand to mean converting the State Department into a bureau for the aid of promoters of foreign undertakings. I do not understand this declaration to mean, however, that the United States Government has no duty and takes no interest in the protection of legitimate investments already made by Americans in foreign countries at the invitation and on the promise of protection of the governments of those countries. Such investments are the basis and principal stimulant of our foreign commerce and are entitled to the same protection and are of the same interest to our citizens at home as the foreign commerce itself. Kill the former and you greatly injure the latter. There is great danger of misinterpretation and misapplication of a popular phrase. And if the practice of “Dollar diplomacy” should be understood to mean the reasonable protection of American investments of all kinds in foreign countries, it would be disastrous to Americans both at home and abroad, and very injurious to our foreign commerce, which is one form of foreign investment.

SUGGESTIONS BASED ON THE FOREGOING FACTS.

I will conclude these observations by repeating here a suggestion which I made a few days ago in writing, confidentially, to a friend of the President, and which may have been transmitted to the President, but whether he is already familiar with it or not I will take the liberty of repeating it; namely, that, in my opinion, the United States Government has a great opportunity at the present time, by acting quickly, of presenting a plan to Huerta, agreeing to recognize him on condition that he will call an election at an early date, October 26 being too remote, and that he guarantee a fair election in all those states of which he has control, the constitutionalists to do the same and to participate in the election. The constitutionalists, on the other hand, to agree that in consideration of this election being called and being fairly held, hostilities shall be suspended, and that they will loyally support the president who shall be chosen as the result of such election.

I do not think it necessary to insist that Huerta shall resign and some other interim president be appointed in his stead, because he is not pretending to hold the power in Mexico, except for the purpose of bringing about peace and a constitutional election, and to guarantee that a president legally elected may be installed. He is the de facto president at the present time, and is a man of energy and executive ability, is in command of the army, and is, better than any other person, able to carry out such an agreement; and I think, from my knowledge of the situation on both sides and the temper of both sides, that both the federalists and the constitutionalists might welcome the friendly intervention of the Department of State of our Government to bring about an understanding between the two factions and peace in the country, as the most graceful and practicable way of getting out of the difficult situation in which both sides now find themselves. It may be possible even that Huerta, if recognized by the United States, would consent if necessary to sctep aside and allow some other person acceptable to the constitutionalists to serve as interim president during the elections, if peace could in this manner be established. If this is not done, war will continue until the country is absolutely exhausted, banditism will grow and increase until there will be no security for human life and private property whatever in the Republic, and the millions of foreign property invested in the country will be depreciated, and in many cases absolutely destroyed. The losses now amount to millions of dollars per day and the situation cannot be much longer sustained.

In addition to that fact, foreign nations are becoming restive and are seeking to undermine the influence of the United States in Mexico. The British Government has already recognized Huerta in a most marked manner by autograph letter from the the King, due to the efforts of Lord Cowdray (Sir Weetman Pearson) who has the largest interests outside of American interests in the Mexican Republic. He is using his efforts to obtain a large loan in England, and I am informed that he has succeeded on condition that the English Government would recognize Huerta, which has been done. If Mexico is helped out of her trouble by British and German influence, American prestige in that country and the commerce of the United States will suffer great damage.

I was in Cananea ten days ago, and saw the lawless condition of things. The people are in the same frame of mind that they were in the City of Paris in 1793, and are as ready to commit depredations against life and property. The want of opportunity for employment which is increasing daily is putting the people in a starving condition, and great looting may be expected in the near future, unless conditions can be speedily changed. Our Government has the opportunity to do a great service to humanity and gain lasting glory by it; in fact, a service far greater than that which was performed by President Roosevelt in bringing about an understanding between the Russian and the Japanese Governments in their late war. Our Ambassador in Mexico is, in my opinion, the man to attempt this work. It might be found necessary to send a special envoy to treat with the constitutionalists, while entrusting our Ambassador in Mexico to treat with the Huerta Government. But in any event, it should be a possible task for the Department of State, because both sides will hesitate to repudiate the suggestion of the United States Government and its powerful influence presented in the form of a wish, and backed, as it necessarily is, with the moral right to demand that it shall be accepted and complied with, when it is considered that the interests of the United States in Mexico represents practically every industry of that country, excepting that of agriculture, and that the commerce of Mexico with the United States represents more than seventy-five per cent of her total foreign trade, all of which, so important to both countries, is now imperiled.