William H. Buckler to Colonel House

C O P Y.

EMBASSY OF THEUNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Dear Colonel House

Ramsay Macdonald, whom I met today at luncheon, was as much tickled as I by the TIMES admission (see clipping herewith, that the two British Labor Delegates to Russia – carefully chosen by a prudent Government – were not sympathetic to the powers that be in Petrograd. In point of fact the Russian revolution has worried this “fight-to-a-finish” Government even more than our entrance into the war has cheered them up. Here is an instance: The Soldiers and Workmen's Delegates, ultra UDC and ILP in sentiment, have just invited the ILP to send to Petrograd representatives duly elected – not selected by Lloyd George. This was told me explicitly by Macdonald and is implied in today's TIMES. Can this Government now refuse passports to such representatives without discourtesy to Russia?Another instance, still more awkward: On Wednesday, 16th, several U. D. C. members will move in Parliament a resolution inviting the Government to endorse the declared policy of their great ally by affirming their opposition to all conquests and annexations. Which can this Government more safely snub, its Russiain allies or its jingo supporters? The official handling of this dilemma will be a curious spectacle. Formerly we used to marvel how a nation so democratic as England could get on with Nicolas II. The question now is how a country so democratic as Russia can get on with Curzon and Milner. The UDC and ILP may be relied on to point out this yawning chasm, and the danger of alienating Russian sumpathies.
I enclose the prospectus of a new French weekly, LES NATIONS, which is to start next month on the independent lines of the NATION and the NEW REPUBLIC. The editor, M. de Marmande, whom I met at Trevelyan's house, thinks it not improbable that his review may share the fate of the NATION, i.
E. have its export forbidden. I have subscribed, as there seems to be no other similar French organ of moderate views.

I have lately heard, on what seemed good authority, that if France should go on for another year she would be ruined for the next quarter of a century. So the point of view of M. de Marmande and his moderates will obviously be anti-“knock out” and pro-negotiation.

The opinion that, except at Bagdad and Salonika, the Eastern struggle is already over becomes, I find, more and more general. And if Russia drops out Italy can hardly remain in to bear the full weight of Austrian blows. Among all sorts of people I find the impression that the Russian armies are “dissolving” (Lord Parmoor has this direct from a Russian correspondent) and that even if this tendency should be exaggerated by rumor Russia will no longer be an effective fighting force (see article of the TIMES military expert today). People's minds are actually being prepared for this by the view which I now sometimes here: “Never mind; we are already fighting all the best German armies, so we needn't care what Russia does”. M. de Marmande says this same “discounting” theory is beginning to circulate in France. The really consolatory feature is that Russian democracy can hardly cease fighting without the co-operation of the German Social Democrats, and that anything which increases their prestige is a defeat for Prussian militarism.MAY 11th.I regret to appear always pessimestic but viewing the situation objectively I do not see how one can well be otherwise. More and more it seems to me that the role to be played by the U. S. is that of deliverer, in other words of helping the Entente out of a serious hole.

I enclose some confidential notes on the two principal speeches made at yesterday's secret session. The remarks of Churchill represent to my mind much more faithfully than do those of the Prime Minister the views and feelings of the people here who are “in the know”. The sinkings of British tonnage for last month were 500,000 tons, or at the rate of 6,000,000 tons a year, as I told you. The total of British and Allied tonnage sunk in April was strangely enough not mentioned.Buxton was much impressed and evidently surprised by the fact (1) that Miliukow has taken up informally with Sir George Buchanan the question of detaching Bulgaria, and (2) the Government speakers showed willingness to consider this proposal. This was the only topic on which Buxton spoke; and Lloyd George was so much interested that he asked him to breakfast this morning to discuss the matter further, and is going to Buxton's house next Tuesday week for further discussion. B. thinks that an American Agent would be the best medium for sounding the Bulgars, say in Switzerland, and he would be very glad to know what view our Government would take of such an attempt. The present idea seems to be that it would be best not to make definite offers to Bulgaria but merely to listen at first to what she has to say. B. regards this willingness to negotiate as a very material step forward on Lloyd George's part.

Yours sincerely,
(Signed) W. H. BUCKLER