The Position in Hungary

The Position in Hungary

Ashmead-Bartlett, Ellis, 1881-1931

WWP15788

1919 June 7

Cary T. Grayson Papers, Woodrow Wilson Presidential Library, Staunton, Virginia

English

MEMORANDUM on
the position in HUNGARY
- by -
E. Ashmead-Bartlett.

1. THE RED ARMY.

The Red Army is now numerically much stronger than it has ever been before amounting to about 160,000 men. The majority are trained soldiers who have served in the war. They have plenty of rifles and small arm ammunition but very little artillery. Of this number it is computed that only about twenty per cent are at heart true Bolshevists. The remainder have been forced to serve or else have come forward because they genuinely believe the war against Rumania and Czecho Slovakia is a national one. There are a great number of ex-officers now serving in the Red Army but almost all those in high authority have signified their intention of refusing to fight if the Entente declares its intention of occupying Budapest with French, British or American troops for the purpose of restoring Constitutional Government in Hungary.

II. THE SOVIET GOVERNMENT.

Time and again during the past six weeks the Soviet Government has been on the verge of falling, and on any of these occasions it only needed the smallest display of decisoion on the part of the Entente to insure its overthrow. This however was nvever forthcoming and the Bolshevists have been strengthened for the following reasons.

A. The Rumanians. The Rumanians, whom all Hungarians heartily despise, without any authorisation from Paris, commenced their time honoured game of taking advantage of other people’s misfortunes, which they did against Bulgaria in 1913 and against the Central Powers, with disasterous results of to themselves, in 1916. They embarked on a purely land grabbing campaign against Hungary and announced their intention in advance of occupying Budapest. Had the French, the Czecho-Slovakian and the Yugoslav troops all advanced at the same time the move would have been excellent and the Bolshevists would long ere this have been driven out of Hungary.

But there was no general advance and no more disasterous policy or one calculated to strengthen Bolshevism could have been devised than that of allowing the Rumankians with poor troops and in inadequate numbers to commence an offensive on their own. It gave just the required opportunity to Kun Bela and his friends to raise the National Cry, and they have been able in consequence to rally about one hundred and sixty thousand men to the Red Flag. A great number of officers, all of whom are at heart bitterly opposed to the Soviet regime, on account of the complete ruin it has brought to their country, felt it their duty to come forward and fight under a Bolshevist Government, rather than see their lands occupied and their capital threatened by a people whom they regard in every way as their inferiors. The Rumanians were in consequence badly beaten, suffered heavy losses and were unable to cross the Tisza. They then climbed down from their former attitude and announced it was never their intention of occupying Budapest but merely to seize and to hold ythe east bank of the Tisza which they covet as their future political frontier. No Hungarian will acquiesce in this.

B. The Czecho Slovaks. The Rumanians haveiing been badly beaten about two weeks ago, the Czechs announced their intention to the Soviet Government of advancing to take up the new line of demarcation which I understand they were authorised to do by the Delobit Armistice Note. They were shockingly handled by the Italian General ----- and moved in adequate numbers. Bohm’s Red Guard Army was waiting for them three divisions strong. The Czechs were badly hammered, lost two thousand prisoners and fled some twenty-five kilometres, being attacked in the rear by the Slovaks.

This unfortunate incident has led to the break up of the alliance between the Czechs and the Slovaks. The former are in a state of panic and openly talk of being obliged to abandon Pressburg. The Red Army of Bohm is continuing its victorious march into Moravia which will shortly be turned into an independent Soviet Republic. In this connection it is interesting to recall the words of Bohm and Pogany on the night of April 4th at the dinner given to the Foreign Press in Budapest on the occasion of General Smut’sbvisit, when, very much the worse for drink, they announced their future policy vis a vis to the neighbouring states which formerly comprised the old Hapsburg Monarchy. These views are contained in the long memorandum presented toby me to General Smuts. Bohm speaking said: “We are going to turn all our neighbours into Bolshevists. We shall start with the Czecho-Slovaks. Don’t you see what a wonderful position Hungary is in geographically as the starting place for Bolsjhevism. We are surrounded by discontented peoples all ready to adopt our principles. The Czecho-Slovaks, once we have kicked them out of Hungary will become Bolshevists right away.”

C. The Italians. The game now being played by the Italians in Hungary is the basest betrayal of the interests of the Entente that can possibly be imagined. It is also the most short-sighted policy, for, unless Bolshevism is eliminated in Eastern Europe it is almost certain that Italy will be one of the first countries to succomb. Italy has her place in the fixed programme of the Bolshevist leadersm, and again to quote Bohm’s words on the night of April 4th, “After Czecho Slovakia it will be the turn of Rumania although that country may adopt Bolshevism at any minute. Jugosalvia will follow as a matter of course and then we shall afrrive in a solid body on the frontiers of Italy. In three months Italy will come over to us.”

But in spite of the dangers to themselves, the Italians, who are blinded to every other issue through their hatred of the Jugo-Slavs, have entered into a semi-official alliance with the Soviet Government and are supporting it by every means in their power. They sell the Bolshevists guns, ammunition, motorcars, tyres, war material of all kinds. They have received payment in gold and they actually take charge of the vast sums of money which the Bolshevist leaders send into Austria for propoganda and other purposes. For instance the Austrian police caught an Italian coming across the frontier with fifty million crowns in his possession. The money was seized, but General Sigray, Chief of the Italian Mission in Vienna, intervened and made the Austrian Government deliver it up to the Italian Mission. It is the policy of the Italians to obtain a controlling interest in as many of the industrial concerns in Jugo-Slavia as possible. To do this they are buying out the former Hungarian investments in these countries and are repaying for them in Italian lire. But not the greatest scandal of all is the manner in which they have sold military secrets to tehe Bolshevist Government at the expense of their former allies. They deciphered messages passing through Triest between the GQG, Paris, and the French and Rumanian Command in Rumania and sent them to Vienna. These wwere then sold by two officers on Sigray’s Staff to Bolshevist agents. The Counter Revolutionists in Vienna obtained possession of these despatches and communicated the whole affair to the French Mission unnder General Hallier. The French were naturally furious at this betrayal and have been obliged to change all their codes. The French believe this was not the act of individual officers as the sums paid were extremely small when compared with the value of the information given, but that it was done officially by the Italian Higher Command and the payments were merely a blind to protect the Italian Mission in Vienna in the event of this deplorable affair coming to light. I will not burden this memorandum with further details of this matter, but they are available if required including copies of some of the deciphered cables.

These are the causes A. B. and C. which have so strengthened the hands of the Bolshevists during the last six weeks.

III. DANGERS TO THE FUTURE PEACE OF EUROPE.

The position in Hungary at the present time is fraught with the gravest dangers to the future peace of Europe, and as long as it is allowed to continue, no peace signed in Paris, to regulate the future boundaries, financial and economic relations of all the new Republics which have arisen from the ashes of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire will be worth the paper it is written on.

The Bolshevist Army which will soon number two hundred thousand men or even more, as general conscription has been decided on, is completely triumphant in the field. That Army is for the time being ringed in by French, Rumanian, CzechoSlovakian and Jugoslav troops who are pursuing the policy of doing nothing.

The Bolshevists have, however, very fololishly from their standpoint, shown their hand prematurely by their invasion of Slovakia which will probably force the Entente to intervene. It was their original intention to play for time and not to arouse reprisals by indulging in military operations against their neighbours. But they have bevcome emboldened by their successes against Rumania and the Czechs, by the inactivity of the French Army and by the immense moral and material support given toby them to the Italians. They intended to remain quiet to seek recognition and then to commence their immense propoganda campaign against their neighbours as soon as peace had been signed, the French withdrawn and the troops of their immediate neighbours demobilised. Their full programme would take too long to state in this memorandum, but it is set out in great detail in the memorandum presented by me to General Smuts after the dinner of the night of April 4th, of which copies are available. Part of that programme in so far as it affects the Czecho-Slovakians has already been realised.

Now unless Bolshevism is eliminated from Hungary before peace is signed and the French armies withdrawn, it will most certainly spread all over Eastern Europe. The frontiers of all the neighbouring states will then be open and a swarm of Bolshevist agents will descend like locusts to devour the new Constitutional Democracies armed with unlimited money and Propoganda. An even greater danger has come into existence during the last two months. The Hungarians now have the strongest army in Eastern Europe and unless this army is disbanded before Peace is signed and the French troops withdrawn, they will start immediate military operations to kick the Rumanians out of YtTransylvania and the occupied Hungarian Hijnterland. This they can do with consummate ease. I would also point out at this stage that if the Conference is hesitating to act in Hungary from a reluctance to interfere with the internal affairs of another nation, they now have a fresh explanation with which to satisfy the extreme Socialist elements in England, France, and the United States, namely this, quite apart from questions of Bolshevism, Hungary, as a hostile power opposed to the Entente in the war, has broken the terms of every armistice, commencing with the Diayz Armistice signed on November 3rd, 1918, by raising and keeping in the field at least four times as many troops as she is allowed by the conditions contained therein. This is an open defiance of the Entente which constituted a fatal example not only to all the states of Eastern Europe, but also to Germany.

IV. THE ONLY REMEDIES AND THE AVAILABLE MEANS.

There is in fact only one policy to be pursued at any cost by the Entente, namely, to smash Bolshevism and to establish a Constitutional Government in Hungary before the final peace is signed and the troops withdrawn. This in reality can be easily done. It only requires a simultaneous advance of the French, Rumanian, Czecho-Slovakian and Jugoslav troops under certain definite well defined provisions: viz..
(a) It must be made clear to the Hungarian people that only French troops will be allowed in Budapest and kept there until General Elections have been held throughout the country.

(b) That Hungary will be given a fair hearing at the Conference of Paris before her future political frontiers are definitely settled.

(c) Any Anti-Bolshevist Government which receives the Entente’s support must definitely promise to refrain from all reactionary measures and to offer a sound Land Reform Policy to the Hungarian peasants.

With these provisions the war would immediately cease to be regarded by all except the Red Guard Extremists as a national one and all experts are agreed Budapest could be occiupied almost without opposition. We have received in fact the definite promise of innumerable officers now serving in the Red Guard Army including the majority of those on the General Staff, that they will never oppose a French advance and will at once join forces with any constitutional Government supported by the whole of the Entente.

V. BOLSHEVISM AND THE ENTENTE TROOPS.

One hears in Hungary that the fundamental objections to an advance on the part of the Entente are due to the fear of Blolshevism spreading to the French troops. This is certainly not the fear of the French Generals on the spot all of whom are in favour of an immediate advance. In fact there is far more danger of Bolshevism spreading to an army sitting still with nothing to do in daily contact with innumerable Bolshevist agents than in one engaged in active operations in the field.

VI. WHAT IS CERTAIN TO HAPPEN.

The position in Hungary is so delicately poised that it requires extremely little pressure to turn the scale against Bolshevism in spite of its outward appearance of strength. The situation of the government in Budapest is extremely bad owing to the shortage of food, the bad paper money in which the workmen and soldiers are now being paid, and the general discontent produced by misery, conscription and terrorism. In the country the peasants are disgruntled by the failure of the Government to carry through the promised land policy, that is to say, one of individual ownership as opposed to communism. Bolshevism can in fact only thrive by making freeksh conquests. Left in isolated areas it consumes itself and nothing is left but the bare ashes of anarchy, bankruptcy, and terrorism. They are for the most part cowards at heart and would eagerly surrender the reins of power if their personal safety could be assured. It is absolutely certain that if the Entente authorises a general advance they will immediately make proposals to this effect. It may be wise, to prevent disorders in Budapest and a possible massacre of hostages, to come to an arrangement whereby the Entente guarantees the personal safety of some of the leaders provided they leave Hungary altogether. When this situation arises it is of paramount importance to have an alternative provisional Government ready to take over the administration of the country until the people have been given the opportunity ogf definitrely deciding on their future form of government by the holdinlg of free General Elections. I will now deal in detail with the political elements from which an alternative government must be formed.

7. COMPOSITION OF SOCIETY IN HUNGARY.

Hungary is a country which suffers from the misfortune of possessing no national middle class highly trained in politics and business, and in consequence the available material from which men trained in state affairs can be drawn is extremely limited. There is however a fairly numerous body of efficient permanent officials. The social strata of the state may be roughly divided as follows: (1) the aristocracy and the great landowners, (2) the Jews who control all the finance and industries of the country and who take the place of the Middle Class in England, (3) the peasants, who must be divided into three categories - (la) the rich peasant proprietors who farm their own land, (b) small peasant proprietors who cultivate from two to four acres for their own use and who also work on the large estates, (c) the labourers who are without any land.

Up to the downfall of Count Tisza the entire political power was in the hands of the nobility and great landowners who were divided into two bitterly opposed hostile groups, the Tisza and the Andrassy parties. It was the quarrels of these two parties which discredited the old regime in the eyes of the people. Strange to say there was no powerful opposition from any Socialist party and the end of Tiszaewas brought about by the constant abuse which the Andrassy party hurled at him from the platform and in the press.

8. THE KAROLYI REGIME.

Count Michel Karolyi, the first President of the New Republic found his chief supporters amongst the small Jews of Budapest. He obtained a temporary and transitory popularity amongst the people by his colossal scheme of Agrarian Reform, the expropriation in fact of all the great estates and Church lands which were offered to all and sundry whether skilled in agriculture or not, at a price which really amounted to confiscation of all preoperty. By this ill devised scheme which would have lessened the agricultural production of Hungary by some fifty per cent, he aroused the cupidity of the peasants and working classes and let loose on the country a flood of ill digested revolutionary schemes and ideas which have brought Hungary to her present state of ruin and chaos. Karolyi, a man of feeble intellect and devoid of principles, endeavoured to stave off Bolshevism by constant concessions to the ever increasing popular demands. He was in fact from the first merely a tool in the hands of the extremists who used the first opportunity which came their way, namely, the presentation of the Delobit Note, on the new lines of demarcation, to dismiss him from office and to seize the reins of power. Thus the entire power fell into the hands of tehe Kissjeddo (small Jews) tarained in the school of Russian Bolshevism. The whole of the would be constitutional parties in Hungary surrendered without a figh fight. A kind of mental inertia settled over the former rulers of the country and they allowed themselves to be driven from office and terrorised over without raising a hand to help their country. It is almost impossible to explain this strange phenomenon, but it was probably due to the exhaustion produced by the war and to the crushing effects of the assassination of the only strong man in the old regime, Count Tisza. On the downfall of Michel Karolyi, the landowners fled the country or retired to their estates, and the rich Jewish bankers and industrial magnates did likewise. Thus the field was left free for the uinauguration of the full programme of Bolshevism in its most virulent from. Even at this stage the constitutional elements might have rallied had the Entente occupied Budapest with a few troops, a move which all parties wished for, and if General Elections had been held throughout the country it is almost certain the consttuitutional elements would have found themselves in a majority. But the reign of terror and confiscation which was immediately started by the Soviet Government completely destroyed all organised opposition.

9. PRESENT POSITION OF BOLSHEVISM.

Budapest has been stripped bare. Everything has in fact been taken from the private houses and either stolen by individuals or confiscated for the use of the state. All money has been taken from the banks and valuables from the safes. The discontent amongst the mass of the people in the capital grows day by day but as the emntire population has been disarmed, ther there is little hope of a successful counter revolution in Budapest until assistance is forthcoming from outside. There have, however, been frequent demonstrations against the Soviet Government made by the organised unions of Metal and Iron Workers and Ammunition Makers, who grew extremely rich in the war and who have no desire to see their property communised. Up to the present the Soviet Government has been able to hold its own, chiefly owing to the causes I have already named (para. 2. a, b, c,) but on several occasions it has been on the verge of resigning. The discontent in the capital is daily augmented by the ever growing shoortage of food, for the peasants will not send in supplies from the country district to be paid in paper money issued by the Government.

10. FEELING IN THE COUNTRY DISTRICTS.

The evils produced by Bolshevism have not been felt to the same extent in the country as they have in Budapest. But the Hungarian peasant is highly conservative at heart and is bitterly opposed to communism in any form. He was undoubtedly attracted by the Karolyi Agragrian programme, because under it he would have obtained land for nothing. But after a short time a reaction set in and many peasants openly declared they would be unable to live by cultivating estates of ten acres, and would prefer to receive high wages by continuing to work on the great estates. The Soviet Government’s attempt to abolish individual ownership and to communise the land led to such a wave of discontent that it had to be immediately abandoned as did also their proposed scheme of abolishing freedom of religious worship. A careful analysis of the present prevailing feeling amongst the Hungarian peasants produces the following results: (a) Rich peasant proprietors are bitterly opposed to Bolshevism in any form. (b) Small peasant proprietors were carried away by the wild promises made them first by Karolyi and then by the Soviet Government, but having derived no benefits, they are gradually coming round to more conservative views and wish for re-establishment of constitutional Government. (c) labourers without land are discontented with both the old regime and the new. Up to the present they have derived no benefit except large increase in wages, but the charm onf the increase has now vanished because they are not willing to accept payment in notes issued by the Soviet Government. Nevertheless, amongst this class there is undoubteedly great discontent and genuine land hunger.

All classes of peasants are discontented with Soviet Government for three reasons: (a) The general unrest throughout the country. (b) Being forced to the colours by conscription. (c) By the bad paper money in which they are now paid. [It is as well to note at this stage that during the last few weeks there have been over one hundred counter revolutions started in various villages in Western Hungary. But by the rapid mobilisation of the Red Guards and the control of the railways it has been easy to suppress these isolated efforts which have been done with much bloodshed.

11. THE COUNTER REVOLUTIONARY PARTIES.

The reign of terror in Budapest forvced almost all the old political leaders who were able to get away to flee the country. The majority succeeded in reaching Austria and have established themselves in Vienna together with many hundreds of officers. The latter are an excellent class, patriotic and dis-interested, who only wish to see some form of Constitutional Government established in their country and who are prepared to offer their services to any party which can bring this about. It, was extremely hard at first to get the counter revolutionists to unite on any fixed programme as the Hungarians unfortunately thrive on jealousies and petty quarrels amongst themselves. But now under the stress of sheer necessity these dissensions have passed away, in fact it may be said that all the old parties have completely disappeared and that only the individuals who led them remain. It was the original intention to set up a counter revolutionary Government in Vienna, but owing to the opposition of Bauer and the Austrian Bolshevists elements, insurmountable difficulties prevented this. It was also impossible to communicate with the officers and political chiefs in the districts occupied by the French, Rumanians and Jugo-Slavs, and thus for some time no co-ordinated action could be brought about. Under these circumstances, Count Duyla Karolyi, a distant cousin and bitter enemy of Michel Karolyi, inaugurated a provisional government at Arad under the protection of the French troops, with Bornemisa as his Foreign Secretary. Duyla Karolyi is a big provincial magnate who has never played a prominent part in politics, but who has proved himself to be an excellent governor of a province. He is quite disinterested and without any political ambitions, and of all the Hungarian leaders, he is the one who impresses me the most favourably. He has established a provisional government mostly of men previously unknown in Hungarian political life, all of whom are pledged to resign on the occupation of Budapest. The whole of the HHungarian political leaders now assembled in Vienna including Bethlen, Bathyani, Duyla Andrassy, Albert Apponyi, Paul Teleki, Dyuri Pallavicini, and a host of lesser politicians and all the military officers have now sworn adherence to the Karolyi Government and are pledged to support it to the utmost of their power. Gorami, who is now in Switzerland also telegraphed his assent provided the new government is pledged to a moderate Social-Democratic programme.

The Karolyi Government issued a modest and sensible proclamation pledgeiing itself to eliminate Bolshevism and to restore constitutional government. It has wisely refrained from embarking on a full political programme at this early stage.

12. PRESENT POSITION OF THE KAROLYI GOVERNMENT.

The Karolyi Government is now established at Szeged in Southern Hungary under the protection of the French troops. It has in fact been recognised as the only Counter Revolutionary Government by the French Generals who have promised to support it by every means in their power. Bauer has now changed his attitude in Vienna and is allowing all Hungarian officers and political leaders to go to Szeged to join Karolyi. Thus for the first time there is unity both of action and thought.

13. PLANS OF THE KAROLYI GOVERNMENT.

The immediate programme of the Karolyi Government is to raise a force of some fifteen to twenty thousand men which could be easily be done if arms and ammunition are only forth-coming from the Entente. A loan is also badly needed. This forvce could then act as the spearhead of an advance of the Entente troops between the Danube and the Tisza. This advance would take place over a flat country with two lines of railway leading direct to the capital. Szeged is 165 kilometres from Budapest so the distance to be traversed is edxtremely short. An advance of the Counter Revolutionary troops and the French would immediately turn all the Red Guards positions facing the Rumanians on the line of the Tisza, and would enable the latter to cross that river to co-operate in a general move in which the Czecho-Slovak and Jugo-Slav troops should also be employed. As I have already ssaid, there is no probability of any serious fighting as the majority of the officers and men in the Red Army are quite prepared to come under the conditions already named.

104. KAROLYI'S GOVERNMENT AND THE SOCIALISTS.

The Karolyi Government is the only alternative one for the Entente to support at the present time as there is no other party in the field. It represents in fact every shade of Hungarian political feeling. It must be clearly understood that there is no united socialist party in Hungary. The so-called Social dDemocrats in the Soviet administration have long since become openly Bolshevist and have participated in the robbery, confiscation and terrorism which have brought the country to the verge of bankruptcy. Any attempt to reconstruct a social-democratic government from the political elements now assembled in Budapest would be a farce and would be unacceptable to the mass of the Hungarian people. The Karolyi Government may be said without exaggeration to represent some four-fifths of the Hungarian people. It is pledged to a liberlal programme of Agrarian Reform, the exact details of which are now being worked out. But such is the ignorance in these matters that urgent help is required from experts versed in these matters from Entente countries.

15. KAROLYI GOVERNMENT AND THE ENTENTE.

The attitude of the Karolyi vis a vis to the Entente is contained in the signed declaration brought by me to Paris and attached to this memorandum. handed by me to Mr. Lloyd George on Monday June 9th.

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