Thomas Nelson Page to Woodrow Wilson

Events move so swiftly and often so unexpectedly these days that much that I have to say may seem out of date and useless when it reaches the other side of the ocean. However, I know you will pardon me.
The situation in America appears to me so acute at present and so promoising of an almost immediate declaration of war, with everything attendant upon this, that for the moment even here the interest seems centered on America, though there is a sufficiently strong undercurrent of talk about what may happen in Italy herself to keep one in mind of the gravity of the situation here.
The Russian revolution which has for the last two weeks filled the front columns of the press, even although only one side of it seems to be given therein, has unquestionably had a certain repercussion in Italy, and I imagine also in the other belligerent countries, including the Central Empires, though I give little credit to the newspaper stories that are published about the latter and base my judgment rather more on my knowledge of human nature than on the one-sided reports that appear in the press. The revolution is heralded here as a great victory for the Allies, but if so, conditions must have been very bad for the Allies prior to the revolution, inasmuch as it can hardly be possible that such a revolution can be brought to a conclusion without civil war and the division of the forces which have hithertoo been declared absolutely solidly in favor of the Allies. I never heard of Emperors being deposed without a blow being struck for them.
In any event, although everything on the surface seems normal enough, I find a certain anxiety existing in the minds of an element here as to the possibility of outbreaks which unless controlled might prove troublesome and possibly even serious. Reports come to me of inflammatory talk on the part of members of the proletariat about the possibility of making a stand for more liberty, independance, etc., which I suppose is only a paraphrase for revolution.
I should say that there would not be much danger of any of this being put in practice were it not for the menace of a great push on the part of the Germans and the Austrians on the Italian frontier. Should such a push prove successful I would not like to predict what the result might be, though my personal opinion is that the Italian people as a whole are resolute enough to stand out to the end and will support the Government however a certain element of malcontents may talk and even intrigue.
A certain amount of this pessimistic talk comes from an element that in the past has always been for the old regime, and I have wondered how much of this may have been inspired by the same motives which inspired sometime ago the statement that both your note of December 18th. and your address to the Senate were delivered in full accord with Germany.
As I have reported, there still seems to be going on a movement in what its representatives call “well-balanced circles” to weaken the cause of the Allies in America. A message came to me only the other day criticizing your attitude as not having been really neutral but only technically so, in that you did not place an embargo on the export of materials to the Allies. All of this is so in accord with what I hear siis taking place in Mexico that I cannot but see in the latter the hand that calls itself “well-balanced circles”.
This brings me back again to America. It looks now as though we were actually in it, and at the outset of this new phase I want to say to you personally how admirably I think you have guided the sState up to the present moment. This has not hithertoo been the opinion of the press here, which, however, is now coming around at least to the expression of this view, and (as you know) it has been denounced by the great body of expatriated Americans in Europe;.bBut I feel reasonably certain that it has been far more admired than has ever been expressed by European statesmen, and only today has come to my knowledge the expression of one in very close touch with those of the highest importance, of the view that your conduct of American foreign affairs has been one of the most extraordinary and brilliant feats of modern times.
I have no doubt in my own mind that your guidance in the future will prove as sound as it has in the past. While it looks to me as though we were now not only on the eve of war, but substantially at war at the present moment, and while it looks to me now as though this were the only course to pursue, I have felt that every day that you have been able to keep us at peace has been of inestimable benefit to us and to the final adjudication of peace on a sound and durable basis.
I am perhaps too far from home to have an opinion of much value on the subject as relates to Mexico, but based on such information as I have, it looks to me as though you will find it necessary to use a very firm hand there and possibly may have before the thing is over to take active steps to settle a situation which seems to me to be growing not better, but worse and worse, and more and more perilous to us. I do not refer simply to Mexican revolutionary movements; these seem quite indigenous; but if the newspaper reports are even measurably true as to Germany's part in fostering Mexican antagonism to the United States, the question is no longer confined within the limits of a local revolution but becomes one which may sttrike at the very base of the Monroe Doctrine.
I have no doubt that this matter is quite as carefully looked afeter by you as are the questions arising on the Atlantic side, and what I am saying is intended to let you know whathow one of your most sincere friends and one who has, I know, the same ultimate aims as you have at heart, feels in regard to this Mexican menace.
I am profoundly convinced that Germany was working before the war to get a foothold in Mexico, as well as in other Southern Republics, which would enable her to disregard any contrary views held in the United States. I am convinced that since the war broke out Germany has done everything in her power to carry out this work much more actively than before, and that the German Ambassador in Washington aided to the extent of his ability to further this German movement. As I wrote you on a former occasion, I had it direct from one of my Latin-American colleagues that he himself had been approached by Bernstorff personally along this line, and that Bernstorff had done all in his power to create suspicion of the United States on the part of the Latin-American Republics.
I have been engaged for some little time past in getting together and collating such material as I could showing the way in which Italy, under the extra–ordinary power vested in the Government at the outbreak of the war, has mobilized her economic forces and has administered the same for the purpose of collecting, maintaining and distributing, these forces to the best advantage for the support of the people and the maintenance of the country.
It is a laborious work for the matter is by no means easy to obtain and it all has to be translated and collated before sending. It is, however, of great interest, and I hope may prove really useful to the Government. It will at least show wherein Italy has been successful, and to some extent point out mistakes which have been made so that we may profit by the experience gained here.
I have written to the Department expressing the hope that this matter may not be filed away simply as general information, but may be handed for examination to the proper bureau or commission or whatever may have such matters in hand.
Beiieve me, my dear Mr. President, as always