Note On Necessity for Increased Shipbuilding

NOTE ON NECESSITY FOR INCREASED SHIP BUILDING.

1. The total loss of all tonnage (above 100 tons gross) by war rise since the beginning of the war has been about 7- million tons gross..

2. The rate of loss has become very much worse during the intensive submarine campaign commencing in February of this year. Over 3- million tons gross have been lost during the last six months. The average monthly loss during the intensive submarine campaign has been about 630,000 tons gross. To this must be added about 34,000 tons gross for losses by marine risk together with a considerable further addition, hard to estimate exactly, for vessels damaged and put out of commission for considerable periods but not by war risk. At the rate of loss during the intensive period, the wastage through the above causes, before allowing for new building, is equivalent to about 8,500,000 tons gross per annum..

3. As against this the present rate of building, outside the United States may be taken at aboutGross Tons.1,200,000 Great Britain 500,000 Other countries____________1,700,000 Gross tons..

4. This means that only about one fifth of the wastage is being met by new building outside of the United States, the net loss, apart from building in that country, being about 6,800,000 tons gross per annum..

5. That Great Britain and the other countries are building so small a proportion of the amount lost is due to the fact that both she and the Allies were bound to put their main effort into expanding their armies, navies and munitions manufacture, for which the necessity was immediate and urgent at the beginning of the war. It was in the third year of the war that the reduction of merchant shipping became a serious factor and by that time the strength of the Allies was already committed in other directions. It was at this stage that America, whose industrial and engineering resources qualify her peculiarly for counteracting the results of the submarine campaign, has entered the war.

6. It may be remarked that 6,800,000 tons gross in steel ships would represent about 4- million tons of steel, that is about 11% of the total annual steel output of the United States. (The 3,000,000 tons deadweight in 18 months mentioned is a recent statement as to building in America would be equivalent to 1,200,000 tons gross tons per annum)7. To see the effect of the net wastage shown above it is necessary to consider it in connection with the total world tonnage avaliable for overseas work.

The total tonnage of the type fit for over-seas employment is about 30,000,000 gross tons.

This is distributed as follows: Great Britain 15,000,000 gross tons. America. 3,250,000 Allies 5,750,000 Neutrals 6,000,0008. That the present tonnage of the world gives no margin for future net wastage is shown not only by the extravagant rates of freight but by the great difficulty the Allies are experiencing in maintaining their present naval and military operations and feeding their civil populations, although they have devoted to these purposes the whole of their tonnage and such neutral tonnage as they have been able to secure..

9. The activities of the Allied navies and the vital supplies of the Allied armies, as well as the minimum sustenance of the civil populations, without whose support no military effort is possible, is now directly dependent upon a mercantile tonnage which is already barely sufficient and is being rapidly reduced. The Germans recognize that this represents the one weak factor in the Allies' prosecution of the war and their one remaining hope. They are themselves throwing their strength into their submarine campaign and it is idle to ignore the fact that this constitutes a serious danger which, unless dealt with promptly and adequately, may nullify the efforts in every direction and result in an unsatisfactory peace. America leads the world in industrial and engineering resources, and by subordinating all other interests to this paramount necessity she- and she alone- has it in her power to meet and to defeat this menace. A programme of some 6,000,000 tons during the next twelve months would in any case ensure a satisfactory conclusion to the war even if it had to be fought right out. If, however, Germany was once sure, from the actual commencement of such a programme, that her opponents had both the will and the power to render her last effort futile, she might conceivably accept a reasonable peace at an earlier date instead of fighting to the last point of exhaustion with no prospect of securing easier conditions.