Stephen L. Slocum to Tasker H. Bliss

Cablegram received at the War Department Oct. 8, 1917.
2:07 PM.
4 CO London,
Bliss,
Chief of Staff,
War Department,
Washington.

Confidential.

With reference to your cablegram received October 6th In my opinion Haig's recent advance has increased the British salient around Ypres to such a degree as to threaten the German lines between Ostend and Lille to the point of now making probable, if the advance is continued a little further, that the Germans may have to withdraw their right wing resting on the sea to a point considerably further to the northeast perhaps even evacuate Ostend. Haig now occupies the whole Passchendaele ridge with the exception of the village of same name and some isolated heights north of it, and if he can gain these points the British will hold the last remaining high ground on an advance toward the east and Brussels over the Belgian plain. His left flank will then be protected from Germans attacking from the plain below. This position will not only render the whole present German lines from the Ypres salient to the sea insecure but may also oblige the Germans to straighten their lines to the south of the salient in the direction of Lille, withdrawing upon that city. From Haig's position to-day on heights the city of Bruges 30 miles away is plainly visible. The military effect of such a withdrawing north and south of the Ypres salient is obvious and if withdrawing of the German right can be forced to the point of obliging them to give up the submarine bases at Zee Brugge and perhaps Ostend, the movement will have had a naval effect of much importance in addition to the military advantages gained and will materially shorten the duration of the war. The moral and political effect of the present drive is very marked both sides not only for what has already been accomplished but by reason of the prospective possibilities. The results so far are bound to be very depressing to the morale of the German troops and to German public opinion which the German authorities have for some time found it necessary to stimulate by increasing suggestions of the prospect of an early peace negotiated upon the basis of a military situation greatly to their advantage. Any withdrawing therefore which could not be either concealed or explained away might have a seriously disastrous effect in Germany especially in view of the hardships of the approaching winter. The effect on the Allies and especially on the British is proportionately encouraging and the buoyancy of public feeling in this country is already marked.

Slocum.

Copy for The Chief of Staff.