Thomas Nelson Page to Woodrow Wilson

I have been sending home almost every day enough by telegram to keep you advised of the situation here in Italy and from week to week have been sending full reports as to the political situation based on the daily press and on such private information as we receive from other sources. Certain things, however, are not of a character which can be given in such form. Hence this letter, with which I wish to place you en rapport with certain currents of opinion which have to be reckoned with and yet which are not so clear that they can be precisely defined.

One of these is the present situation here both politically and from the military standpoint. I was very anxious to have Colonel House come to Italy to feel for himself just what the internal situation is and I know that both Baron Sonnino and the French Ambassador, M. Barrère, wanted him to come, besides many other important personages in political life here. Moreover, it would have had a certain moral effect of value and whatever has a moral effect here now is of value, for there is a certain change going on here at present and although the currents are beneath the surface, I am sensible that they may indicate serious and important consequences. The country, having merged all differences and presented a united front to the invaders and stopped them on the Piave, now seems to be dividing again into factions, in which the out-faction seems to be playing politics with the belief that it can come in and either now, or very soon after, supplant the present government and become the directive force itself. A peace propaganda of some kind is being pushed secretly but zealously and the socialists and the Vatican are both said to be concerned in the movement and coincidently with this, Signor Giolitti has come back into public life and unquestionably is making his influence felt. His opponents say that he is behind this movement and several things join to give ground for this belief. You will recall perhaps the conversation which I reported as having had on November 18th with Baron de Bildt, the Swedish Minister here. De Bildt is a liberal and personally most friendly to the Allies. He used to be in Washington and his first wife was an American. Also he is on the most cordial personal terms with both the British and the French Ambassadors. To-day the socialists are pushing a propaganda, according to report, propounding as possible somewhat the same terms with those which de Bildt suggested to me after his conversation with Signor Tittoni, who, I believe, was in touch with Giolitti at the time. One difference, however, is that the terms suggested by the Socialists have not so far as I am informed included the disarmament of Germany and the other belligerents.

Also coincidently with the foregoing is the apparently rising dissatisfaction with Baron Sonnino who has hitherto absolutely dominated the Italian Government and apparently has done so without consulting anyone, his power being based on the conviction that he was patriotic, able, fearless and honest. All of these he undoubtedly has been. His prestige, however, has been somewhat injured by his making terms with several men in the Cabinet, one the Premier, Signor Orlando, and the other Signor Nitti, the present Minister of the Treasury, with neither of whom had he been supposed to be on political terms of close amity hitherto. More than this, however, his prestige has suffered from his former dominance at the time when the débacle occurred on the Isonzo in the end of October. And now Cadorna, the other dominant personage in the Government, having been displaced, the situation enables Sonnino's enemies to assail him as the next responsible personage for all that has befallen Italy. The chamber has gone into secret session on the motion of the government against the protest of the Socialists; and so it is not yet known what has taken place at the two or three sittings which have been held behind closed doors. But there are intimations that the whole matter of responsibility is being discussed and certainly not without sufficient storminess to make possible its reverberation hereafter. Sonnino has not yet made a statement but it is said that he is going to make one and on this will possibly depend whether or not he will remain at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and should he not do so, the Ministry will probably fall, as Orlando is said to have promised Sonnino that they would stand or fall together. It appears to be thought at this immediate present that no one is yet strong enough to take Sonnino's place and that this present storm will be weathered; but there is great tension here and undoubtedly the feeling of security in Sonnino's ability to guide Italy safely has suffered a serious shock. Should he not remain it looks as though Signor Nitti might become either the Premier or the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Sonnino's chief strength at present is that he has been so strongly backed by the other Allies and has been so clearly recognized by them and I may add by myself, as being the strongest man in Italy for pushing the war to a conclusion, that to overthrow him now would be proclaimed by the anti-war party and by the enemies of Italy without her borders as a victory for them and might be utilized disadvantageously to Italy and to the Allies by those who are not only against Sonnino, but against the allied cause.

It may all depend on whether the Italian army, with such aid as it has, can hold the present Piave line and this is the question of the moment. Austria and Germany are attacking the Italian left without intermission and without counting the cost in the apparently fixed determination to carry the mountain heights which are the key to the situation and which if carried will turn the Italian left and force the line back to the Adige and possibly, even to the Po and the Mincio. The Italians have shown no lack of spirit or self-sacrifice or endurance; but little by little they seem to be losing ground and they are certainly out-numbered and are not equal to their opponents in artillery and other military equipment at this time. I have been considerably encouraged to-day to hear that Marshal Foch believes that they will be able to hold the Piave line. My informant was my colleague, Barrère, who says that he got this from Foch only four days ago. If the line holds, all may go well; if not, no one can foretell what may happen. It looks as though those who are against fighting the war through to a finish may seize the occasion to propose by some means the discussion of peace terms somewhat like those above referred to and it looks as though these terms are now being suggested covertly with a view to preparing the soil for such an event.

I have lived too long to undertake to foretell any event; but certainly there is a recrudesence of what may be termed a peace propaganda here in Italy carried on in very secret but in very insidious ways. If it does not avail, it will be due partly to the inspiriting effect of your recent message to Congress and the subsequent declaration of war on our part against Austria and to the belief that through our coming in at this time, Italy has acquired a new force which she did not previously possess. The effect of your message was tremendous and when we declared war, it sent a thrill throughout Italy. And now if you can send her some American troops, even a single division, or even a single transport load, with the Flag, it will be received as an emblem of future and possibly, not distant victory. I believe that this is the view of every thinking man in Italy.Believe me, my dear Mr. President, always,With all good wishes for the New Year — for you and yours.