William B. Hale to William Jennings Bryan

Upon reviewing all the words and acts of Carranza and his advisers I note that they maintain the attitude of being now indifferent to raising of the arms embargo, rejecting the idea of moral aid from the United States, refusing to entertain suggestion of nominating for Provisional President and ? us to recognize the Carranza “ministers”. In part this attitudem is insincere. Carranza is afraid of giving other chiefs a pretext for disputing his leadership. It is possible that if Carranza were confronted with the actual necessity of participating in the choice of Provisional President or of seeing such Provisional Presidency pass in to other hands, he might yield his scruples. It might be well to keep possibility of communication open against sudden events in Mexico City. Yet my judgment is all against submitting to Carranza’s assumption that we will deal through his ministers. On the other hand if it should still be determined to permit Constitutionalists to import arms we should doubtless do well to take this step not grudgingly but with complete grace even to the extent of recognition. Escudero and Bonillas are tonight still at Nogales.